Latino voter turnout
Why are Republicans Scrambling to Suppress the Latino Vote?

It is indeed puzzling to witness Republicans scrambling to suppress the Latino vote for the November election.  Governor Gregg Abbott recently ordered a limit of only one mail-in ballot drop-off location for each Texas county, an action that has initiated lawsuits charging Latino voter suppression from the League of United Latin American Citizens (LULAC), the Texas chapter of the League of Women Voters, and two individuals.

In addition to creating more difficulty for Latino voters, Governor Abbott’s action creates higher barriers for persons with disabilities and those 65 years and older who are concerned for their personal safety and the additional distance that they will need to travel to a single location.  

Other recent actions initiated by Republicans to limit voter participation include the numerous false allegations of fraud associated with mail-in ballots, significant reductions in the capabilities of the U.S. Post Office to process mail-in ballots, and not allowing Texas voters to use COVID-19 exposure as a basis for requesting a mail-in ballot.

The irony is not lost here – why are Republicans in such a frenzy to further limit Latino voter participation given their historically low voter turnout rates in past presidential elections? According to Pew Research, Latino voter turnout rates were 48.0 percent in 2012; 27.0 percent in 2014; 47.6 percent in 2016; and 40.4 percent in 2018. No cause for worry, right?

Rather than encourage Latino voter turnout, however, Republicans like Gov. Abbott are experiencing a re-awakening of their strategy due to several recent trends:

·       Highly populated areas like Harris County expect a surge of mail-in ballots, especially from Democratic precincts that include many Latinos and Blacks;

·        The number of mail-in ballots that have been requested from Democratic-leaning precincts are dramatically out-numbering the Republican precincts;

·        Most recent polls confirm that two-thirds of Latino registered voters would support Biden while Trump captures only one-third of the vote, a trend that is consistent across the battleground states;

·        Bloomberg is investing millions to support Democratic candidates;

·        According to Pew Research, 32 million Latinos are projected to be eligible to vote this November and represent 13.3 percent of all eligible voters in the U.S.


Governor Abbott’s action especially wreaks of hypocrisy. During the last gubernatorial election, the governor’s televised campaign included a Hispanic family member in a pitch to capture the support of Texas Latinos. While the Latino vote may have been candy to Governor Abbott in the past, perhaps the governor’s current sentiments about Latino voters is best captured in B.B. King’s song “The Thrill is Gone.”

With the exception of LULAC, it is particularly troublesome to observe the relative silence among Latino business and civic organizations that have publicly challenged the legality and morality of these Latino voter suppression tactics.  Rather than bury one’s head in the sand, these voices need to be loud and constant in the days remaining to the November election.

In my opinion, the available evidence regarding the increasing number of Latino eligible voters, registration rates, and polling results suggests that Latinos are energized to vote in the November election and that Republicans may pay a heavy price for their deliberate tactics to suppress the Latino vote.

Latino Voter Turnout: Time to Re-fresh Our Thinking
National news headlines this past weekend announced Tim Kaine as Hillary Clinton’s choice for Vice President.  Given the nation’s anticipation of this announcement, It was interesting to see that the major headline of news reports was focused on Tim Kaine’s fluency in Spanish, which he aptly demonstrated to Miami audiences.  
This is not the first time that we have seen a political candidate speak Spanish to win the hearts of Latino voters.  President George W. Bush, for example, used his limited Spanish-speaking skills to engage Latinos in his gubernatorial and presidential elections. When Spanish-speaking skills were lacking,  some politicians have chosen to showcase their Latino family members in their campaigns — including wives, grandmothers and nephews.  The assumption, of course, is that Latinos will somehow connect culturally with the political candidate, translating into more votes.  Donald Trump, however, gets the top award for Most Disconnected Political Candidate for his recent tweet showing him eating a taco bowl and saying “I love Hispanics.”  
Tim Kaine, however, is not the typical politician that is reaching out to Latino voters.  Aside from his good Spanish-speaking skills, he seems to have more insight into the Latino culture  — using humor, personal anecdotes, and underscoring values that are important to Latinos.  In addition, Tim Kaine’s past career included litigating civil rights cases, missionary work in Honduras, and other social involvement in communities.  His political career has been impressive with a track record for winning all of his past competitions for elective office.   Indeed, Tim Kaine appears to be an excellent addition to the Clinton team with considerable potential for engaging Latino voters.
Given the lower voter turnout rates of Latinos in past presidential elections, however, Democrats risk the possibility of losing this election if they continue to rely on the same strategies of past elections to engage the Latino voter. The selection of Tim Kaine is just one element of Clinton’s Latino strategy, and not necessarily the most important one.  Hillary Clinton currently has an impressive advantage over Donald Trump as shown by recent polls of Latino registered voters at the national, statewide, and metro levels (see Table 1 below).  Indeed, Hillary Clinton’s advantage over Donald Trump ranges from 39 to 58 points.

                                                   Table 1
                  Candidate Margins in Recent Latino Voter Polls
Poll
Hillary Clinton
Donald Trump
Margin
Fox News May 2016 U.S.
62%
23%
39%
Pew Research June 2016 U.S.
66%
24%
42%
Rincon & Associates June 2016 Dallas/Ft. Worth  Metro
50%
11%
39%
Univision Poll July 2016 U.S.
67%
19%
48%
Latino Decisions July 2016 Texas
74%
16%
58%

But some of these polls also show that about one-quarter of Latino registered voters remain undecided about the candidates, may vote for another candidate, or just stay home on election day.   Coupled with the daily changes in the political campaigns  – convention activities, disclosure of DNC emails, endorsements – Democrats cannot afford to get too complacent.

Interestingly, as national polls of the general electorate show Hillary Clinton’s edge over Donald Trump diminishing, the role of the Latino vote will take center stage, especially in the battleground states. There is certainly no shortage of eligible Latino voters as current Census Bureau reports tell us that at least 26 million Latinos will be eligible to vote in the November 2016 election.  Table 2 below shows that 80 percent of these eligible voters were located in just 10 states.  The problem, however, is that only 48 percent of eligible Latino voters actually cast a vote in the 2012 presidential election. Which begs the question:  What magic wand is going to move the Latino voter turnout rate beyond 48 percent? Surely, it would be risky to simply rely on the same campaign strategies of the past.

                                          Table 2
            Estimate of U.S. Latinos Eligible to Vote
                        in November 2016 Election
State
Latinos Eligible to Vote
California
6,907,428
Texas
4,820,430
Florida
2,566,940
New York
1,870,750
Arizona
985,387
Illinois
931,744
New Jersey
824,210
New Mexico
596,169
Colorado
550,775
Pennsylvania
430,592
Total Eligible
20,484,425
   Source: American Community Survey One-Year Estimates, 2014


The Message to Latinos

The challenge of engaging the millions of eligible Latinos to become registered voters has already received a jump-start from Donald Trump. Judging by reports from California and Georgia, registration of Latino voters is surging as a direct result of the negative campaigning that Donald Trump has directed in past months towards Latinos, immigrants, women, war heroes and the disabled. But more effort will be needed to move the needle beyond the 48 percent turnout rate.  This hardcore segment of Latino non-voters will need a strong message that will remind them about the consequences to families if they decide to sit out the November election. This message or messages will need to be educational and persuasive since non-voters are less likely to know or understand the policies that differentiate the presidential candidates and the consequences to their quality of life.  
Past political campaigns have used several slogans to engage Latinos, such as “Si se puede,” “Su voz es su voto,” and “Juntos se puede.”  Perhaps it is time to go beyond these traditional slogans and engage the talents of advertising agencies to create new slogans that excite Latinos about the importance of participating in the upcoming presidential election.   The new strategy, however, will need to incorporate both an educational component and a persuasive call-to-action component.
Following are some ideas for the educational component of a new non-voter campaign:  
·        Support for a Path to Citizenship: The lives of 12 million undocumented immigrants remain on hold due to the lack of progress on immigration reform. The Clinton-Kaine team supports a path to citizenship for these immigrants, many of whom include women and children that escaped persecution in their countries of origin.
·        Minimum Wage of $15 per hour:  Many workers on minimum wage will benefit by this increase in the minimum wage, especially Latinos who often work for low wages in restaurants, hotels, and construction.  The Clinton/Kaine team supports a $15 per hour minimum wage.
·        Voter ID Laws:  Republicans have tried their best to limit the voting power of Latinos and other groups by pushing voter ID laws with little evidence of voter fraud. Democrats, on the other hand, have been fighting successfully in the courts to eliminate such laws.
·        Supreme Court Appointments: The next president will have the opportunity to appoint one or two Supreme Court justices, which could radically change the laws that influence the quality of life of many Americans. Latinos cannot afford to allow Donald Trump to take this opportunity to appoint justices that will eliminate programs or policies that benefit Latino families.
·        Support for Women’s Rights:  A woman’s right to choose her options for family planning continues to be threatened by Republicans, especially in states like Texas.  Such efforts especially impact lower-income Latinas who often require support and guidance in choosing the right family planning options, and obtain needed exams for breast cancer screening.
·        Support for Free Tuition at Public Colleges:  More Latinos are graduating from public colleges but start their careers with large student debt.  The Clinton/Kaine team is making free tuition at public colleges a top priority of their campaign, but no support by the Trump campaign has been offered in this area.
·        Support for Gun Control:   The absence of tougher background checks has made it too easy for people with bad intentions to purchase weapons that can kill large numbers of people in a few minutes. These weapons threaten the lives of all Americans, especially groups who are often the target of hate crimes such as Latinos, immigrants, African Americans, gay/lesbians, and police officers. Despite the many deaths in the U.S. that have resulted from the use of these weapons, Donald Trump has no plans to change gun control laws. The Clinton/Kaine team will support tougher background checks and limit the sale and distribution of these military-style weapons.
·        Expanding Healthcare for the Uninsured:  Historically, the uninsured rate for Latinos has been among the highest in the U.S.  The Affordable Care Act, known also as Obamacare, has greatly improved access to health insurance for Latinos and other groups who have had difficulty in obtaining affordable healthcare coverage.  The Clinton/Kaine team plans to keep and improve The Affordable Care Act, while the Trump candidate promises to eliminate it.
Creative ideas regarding the persuasive call-to-action component are best handled by talented advertising agencies that develop multiple ideas for slogans that are tested with the target audiences.  “Feel the Bern” is an excellent example of a slogan that resonated well throughout this presidential campaign with many audiences, and there is no reason why similar slogans cannot be created for Hillary Clinton that resonate well with English and Spanish-speaking audiences.
Delivery of the Message

Past efforts to engage and educate Latinos about the importance of their civic participation have included voter registration drives, use of traditional media (i.e., television, radio, newspapers), appearances at community events, endorsements by key Latino leaders or personalities, and sending relevant information to parents by coordinating with schools.  However, a digital revolution is taking place among U.S. Latinos that dramatically expands the ability of political campaigns to engage Latinos. As reported recently by the Pew Research Center,  U.S. Latinos now have nearly comparable access to the Internet compared to whites, and rely greatly on mobile devices to engage with the news, shopping, and communicating with family members.  Following are some suggested steps for enhancing the delivery of these messages to the un-engaged Latino electorate:
·        Focus on the geographic areas where Latino eligible voters are highly concentrated. The American Community Survey provides detailed information regarding the geographic areas that include sizable numbers of Latino eligible voters – at the state, metro, county and city levels.
·        Tim Kaine should continue to communicate in Spanish throughout the campaign since it is useful as one way to establish rapport among Latinos. Not all political candidates, however, have the cultural experience that Kaine has to make the Spanish pitch sound credible.  But remember that the majority of Latino voters are native-born and communicate primarily in English. Both English and Spanish-language messages and media vehicles should be utilized to ensure a balanced delivery of the campaign messages.
·        Maximize the use of social media, a popular form of communication for Latinos.  Latinos are more likely than non-Latinos to access the Internet, use apps, and Facebook through their mobile devices, and often share their information will their networks of friends and family members.  Apps are low in cost compared to traditional media, and have the potential to reach   all segments of Latinos through a mix of attention-grabbing technology.
·        Engage the support of the many businesses and organizations that employ significant numbers of Latinos to provide their employees time off on election day to cast their vote, encourage early voting to avoid long lines on election day, and sponsor transportation to facilitate travel to voting precincts when needed.  Too many blue collar or low-wage workers have restricted work schedules that have contributed to a lower voter turnout.
·        Latino bloggers, radio and television personalities should be more aggressively engaged to discuss the myths and hysteria that the Trump campaign has been promoting. The Clinton campaign, for example, has sponsored some relevant television commercials that focus on the impact that Trump’s insulting statements are likely to have on the nation’s children.  Similar tactics should incorporate Latino adult audiences and the potential impact on their quality of life.

It would be premature to think that these thoughts provide the silver bullet that is needed to ensure that the Latino voter turnout rate surpasses 48 percent in the November presidential election.  However, it is perhaps time to expand our collective thinking about innovative strategies to engage Latinos in the November election this year.